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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.